COVID-19 and Emerging New World Order

COVID-19 and Emerging New Economic World Order

 by:

Vijay SARDANA

American companies greed is responsible for China’s rise and America's fall. Who invested in China the most? Why the invested in China so much - For-profit of their own or for the benefit of America? Think over it. 

China's rise is assured, India can also take second place, but for our low ethical standards in business, we will suffer until we put our house in order. Indian managers should realize the benefit of good governance to control short-sighted gains & greed in business management. The fact still is that without innovations, India cannot match China.

In the emerging  world economic order, Russia will try to destabilize American fuel and defence industry. China, on the other hand, will try to destabilize western IT, consumer products, textile, chemicals, metal industries, etc. They both will collaborate to gain leadership position in the world order. 

The western world will slow down in the coming days. Coronavirus will ensure that the EU is no more an economic force of the future. Asian countries will replace the European Union in the world order and China will spread its influence in Asia. Things will start changing soon in the world order.

Internally, Russia will ensure fuel and food supplies to China. China will provide consumer products and consumer technologies to Russia. Why they will need Western world?

WTO which was designed by Western World to make inroads in Asia and other markets, China used the same to outsmart USA and EU to hit them hard. These democracies were chasing money when China was chasing global assets. 

In the new new world order, India can emerge as a new investment destination but rules of the games will be very different. Are we ready to play the new game with new rules?

Many key assets in India are for sale due to huge NPAs of banks. Who will buy - China, EU or USA? What about India players? Can they match the new game or the new world? Do they have financial bandwidth or managerial bandwidth? Where are the people to understand and play this new game in India? 20th Century theories will not work in the 21st century because of AI, ML, quantum computing and cyber world. 
Global warming concepts and avoid single-use containers, less soap and water concepts all will need re-look. This virus will keep emerging in one form or the other in mutated forms.
Now, terrorists will have a new form of weapon, more dangerous than nuclear material and very easy to use. Border securities will find it difficult to stop. Weak laws and badly designed world trade laws do not enforce bio-security aggressively in world trade. Now a new form of non-tariff barriers will emerge. WTO is dead now. World trade will be looked with suspicion as a source of foreign contamination by authorities.

Indian Government and leading companies must relook inward with serious critical analysis and start putting the house in order. Throw the old and outdated rules. Rewrite the rule book for the new world order. Create institutions who can manage India in aggressive non-democratic world. Political leadership should be tested based on their efforts in creating world-class institutions and infrastructure. Study of Chinese model can give some insights. 
What the world can do to retain this world order? Stop over-dependency on China for global supplies. Like gulf region lost its significance after electrical storage systems, e-mobility, solar and wind power, Ethanol-based fuel and new oil fields in the USA, China will also lose its significance, if supply lines are diversified. UN, OECD, G20 and WTO should ensure no one region should have more than 25% of world supply concentration. This will ensure balanced and sensible world order, the race for supremacy will be less aggressive and the world will be at peace. The greed of the corporate world can be controlled by better regulations. Employment should be the priority over profit to ensure peace in the world. Support to religious intolerance and fundamentalism should not be allowed under any pretext. The education system in every country must teach democracy, ethics and good governance as a mandatory subject in school education. This will expose the mindset of the countries if they oppose this.

Lockdown is a time to initiate serious thinking at all levels.  As time will pass, we will get more clarity. 

Disclaimer: Views are personal.