In 2016, Food Inflation Management will decide Quality of Governance

In 2016, Food Inflation Management will decide Quality of Governance

By:

Vijay Sardana

International Agribusiness & Commodity Expert

Blog: ‘Vijay Sardana Online’

It is high time to do the reality check before it is too late. I can also paint a rosy picture and create illusion that everything is good and great. Will it help the country? 

We can choose to ignore the facts, but facts remain.

Growing population, stagnant crop productivity, growing imbalance in food supplies, growing import dependency on pulses and edible oils, lack of feed and fodder for livestock sector, increasing labour cost, depleting natural resources like soil and water, rising pollution, poor agriculture infrastructure and essentials like irrigation and quality seeds will decide the food inflation in India. Lack of action on ground, poor extension services and lack of timely availability of quality agriculture inputs to farmers will add to pressure on food inflation.

Per capita availability of food items is going down. Today, Food and nutritional security of India is becoming increasingly depending on imported commodities.  This is risky for sovereign political and economic policies of India.

Country is waiting for agriculture, food and feed security policy, action plan with timelines and resource allocation from the government. So far all the announcements made by government are to encourage private to invest and perform. So far no action is seen on agriculture, education and health care front.

Cost of food, education and healthcare is going up. No action plan is visible about how to minimize these costs for common man. Food costs are already at its peak and in coming months it is likely to increase further.

Farmers are suffering due to stagnant minimum support price (MSP) and rising input costs. Food provider, i.e. farmer, often remains hungry and helpless. Livestock sector also needs serious planning from breed, feed and fodder point of view.

Considering the complexities in agriculture sector and growing challenges for food security. It is advisable that government without losing much time must come out with agriculture, food and feed security policy for the country. Planning and Implementation will also take time.

Agriculture is a state subject and no state has plan to ensure food security. Planning at central level will be of little help because states will not execute due to political short sightedness and resources constraints.

Concern is rising food cost will force common man to stop spending money on non-essential items and this will seriously impact economic growth of industrial and non-essential services.

In 2016, economic growth will depend upon whether Indian policy makers both at Center and state will be address the food inflation or not.

Surplus disposal income in the hands of common man will decide the future of Indian economy. No political discourse inside or outside parliament or in media or on TV channels can improve economic condition unless common man has disposal income. Short-sighted political vested interest will derail the economy – stand on GST is clear evidence.

In my view, performance of the government in 2016 will be judged by how they will manage food inflation and at what cost.

I wish you all very Happy New Year 2016. 

Eat Healthy, Live Healthy.