Food Inflation will derail Modi Development Model

The Biggest Challenge for Modi Governance Model

Food Inflation - Food Security - Farmers' Income crucial for Economic Growth

Let us be clear that why Food Inflation, Food Security, Farmers' Income is and will remain be the biggest challenge for Mr. Modi.

What percentage of income common man should spend on food?
According to my understanding, if common man is spending more than 50% income on food, economy of that country will remain under pressure.

Success of economic development depends upon surplus money in the hands of consumers after spending on basics like food, education and health. 

The recent data on food inflation and industrial production data clearly indicates slow down is happening in Indian economy. 

Industrial production is low because demand from consumers is going down. The surplus money to spend on non essentials is not there any more. 

One can argue on media based on illogical justifications and statitics whether food is expensive or not, food inflation is under control of not, but fact remains if other sectors of economy are not growing it means whatever consumers are earning they are spending on food, health and education and not keep to share their earnings on non essentials.   Either they are not having money to spend or they are not keen to spend because of uncertainty in coming days or months.

Credit Cards and even education loans defaults are increasing, because people don't have money to pay back credit used on the cards and education loans will be paid back provided there are jobs. The high fees in professional courses will force candidates to look for highly paid jobs and leave Small and Medium Size companies without competency. Medium to Long term implication will be disaster for SMEs. 

Challenge before Government:
Modi government came to power to address the challenges of inflation and employment. Pulses at Rs. 70 was election issue.

what will be the price of pulses in 2019, when Mr. Modi will go for reelection?

Pulses already crossed Rs. 200 per Kg: India will need another 10 million pulses to meet minimum demand per capita

Pulses at 150 per kg, chicken is at 70 per kg. Both farmers are suffering because pulses productivity is low and poultry prices are low.

This year soybean production is low, it appears next target will be edible oils. Mustard Oil is already crossing Rs. 120 per litre, soybean plants are already facing problem of raw material. We are already importing edible oils worth USD 12 billion.  

My estimate is India will spend about USD 25 billion on Edible oils and Pulses from world market by next general elections. World market will exploit India more due to shortage in domestic markets and lack of food security plans. 

Mr. Modi has to correct his priorities in common man's interest, else Bihar will be repeated in other states.

Till date, we got plan for Bullet train, Smart City, Digital India, Aviation Policy, etc. etc., but we have not seen any action on National Agriculture Policy and National Food Security Plan. Why? 

Was Mr. Modi serious about Food Inflation in his election speeches and election manifesto. If yes, he should propose Food Security Policy of India in winter session.

Action speaks louder than the words. As consumer one can wait and watch helplessly.