India’s Food Security – Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow
India’s food security – Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow
By:
Vijay Sardana
International
Agribusiness & Commodity Trade Expert
Preamble
No country can
ensure its political sovereignty without food security. There is close relation
between food security, economic growth and law and order in the society. The
economic growth is directly related to food inflation. Higher the food
inflation lower will be the economic growth because high food inflation
reducing consumer spending on non-food economic activities. In India we are also
adding about 15 million people every year. They all will need food to survive
and perform. Food intake less than required by the body will lead to widespread
sickness due to malnutrition, stunting and disease due to imbalanced diets.
Considering these facts on ground let us be clear that
there is no hope that food inflation will come down in coming years, unless we
have some serious rethinking about our food production, food supply chains, lifestyle
and consumption habits.
The biggest challenge for the policy makers and for
governance is going to be, how to improve our productivity and prevent food
losses to ensure food security for masses at an affordable price in coming
years.
How much food India will need in
coming years?
It is good to hear that
India is food secure, no doubt we have managed out food supplies to a great
extent, but now India is at cross roads. It is high time we should recognize the ground
reality before it is too late.
In a country of 1270
million, where per capita income is lower than world average, and where 30% of
population lives below poverty line, about 45% kids suffer from undernourishment,
majority of child mortality is due to stunting, lactating mothers are not getting
enough diet to feed her new borne, food inflation is and will always remain a
biggest political issue in every election. The management of food inflation
will be the corner stone of good governance claims by any ruling party.
Agriculture reforms will
take time because no government has capability to take on vested political interest.
Policy makers are habitual of offering freebies as political bribe to voters to
win elections but they are not keen to look at productivity and efficiency as
criteria for policy reforms.
If case we want economic
success in India, agriculture sector needs due attention by political
establishments in India. Long term consistent policy is pre-condition to ensure
minimum food security. There is need to develop a food security plan.
The National Food
Security Plan will act as a blue print for all and will also encourage private
investment. This document should include growing demand for food, feed, fiber
and fuel. This plan must address supply chain issues at all levels including agriculture
based inputs for other industrial sectors. This should give clear direction to
all stakeholders for next 10 to 15 years, which can be evaluated on yearly
basis for any corrections based on experiences on ground.
According to the Report of the Technical Group on
Population Projections constituted by the National Commission on Population,
Government of India, the population of India is expected to increase to 1400 million by 2025 at the rate of 1.2 percent annually. As a
consequence, the density of population will increase from 313 to 426 persons per
square kilometer.
According to the Chairman of Prime Minister’s
Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC), it has been estimated if we grow at 9 per cent per
annum, India’s per capita GDP will increase from the current level of $ 1,600
to $ 8,000-10,000 by 2025. It looks more on optimistic side, with this growth;
India will become part of the middle income group of countries when it achieves
$ 8000-$ 10,000 per capita incomes.
According to an FAO study, food energy requirements
for South Asian population will be about 2700 Calories / capita / day in the
year 2025.
In India, the food grain availability is at present
around 525 gms per capita per day whereas the corresponding figures in China
& USA are 980 gms and 2850 gms respectively. Due to improvement in per
capita income, if per capita consumption is 650 gms, the food grain requirement
will be about 390 MT of food grain by 2025.
In case of Pulses, according to WHO requirements,
India will need about 35 million tons of pulses by 2025.
In terms of edible oil demand, it is estimated that
it will be about 17 kg per capita per year. It means India will need about 23.8
million tons of edible oils by 2025.
Deficit for feed and fodder is already about 35% to
65% in various regions.
Indian agriculture is dominated by small farmers,
having small landholdings for cultivation. The average size of the landholding
was 2.30 ha in 1970-71, which declined to 1.32 ha in 2000-01. The absolute
number of operational holdings increased from about 70 million to 121 million.
If this trend continues, the average size of holding in India would be mere
0.68 ha in 2020, and would be further reduced to a low of 0.32 ha in 2030.
On the other hand, by 2025, per capita agriculture
land available will be just 0.1 ha per capita. In other words, it is just 100
feet x 100 feet plot per person to meet the daily needs of food, fuel, fodder
and fiber round the year. With increasing population this area will further
shrink.
At the same time, available estimates with
agriculture ministry reveal that nearly 120.72 million ha of land in the
country is degraded due to soil erosion and about 8.4 million ha has soil
salinity and water-logging problems. Besides, huge quantities of nutrients are
lost during crop production cycle.
Annually, India is losing nearly 0.8 million tonnes
of nitrogen, 1.8 million tonnes of phosphorus and 26.3 million tonnes of
potassium— deteriorating quality and health of soil is something to be checked.
Problems are further aggravated by imbalanced application of nutrients
(especially nitrogen, phosphorus and potash), and excessive mining of
micronutrients, leading to deficiency of macro- and micronutrients in the
soils.
According to Minister of Agriculture, by 2025,
India will have about 1700 m3 of water per person and 84% of this water will be used for irrigation purpose. This is at
stress level.
At the time of Independence of India, population was less than 400
million and per capita water availability over 5000 cubic meter per year
(m3/yr).
In the year 2007, India’s population was about 95 crore
and per capita water availability was fallen to about 2,200 cubic meters per
year. With the population crossed 1
billion mark, water availability has fallen to about 2000m3/yr per capita. By
the year 2025 per capita availability is projected at only 1500 m3/yr or just
30% of availability levels in comparison to what was at the time of Independence.
By 2025, the water requirement for
irrigation will be 790 billion
cubic meter. Our total reservoir
capacity will be about 300 to 350 billion cubic meter.
This per capita water availability will further fall to
about 1500 cubic meter per year by the year 2025 due to increasing population.
It means about 4000 liters of water per day per person to meet all our
requirement for food, feed, cleaning, industrial and non-industrial activities
like recreation, etc. Animal also need water to survive which we have not
factored in.
At the same time, economic growth and individual wealth
are shifting diets from predominantly starch-based to meat and dairy, which
require more water. Producing 1 kg rice, for example, requires about 3,500 L
water, 1 kg meat some 15,000 L, and a cup of coffee about 140 L. The water
requirement for per litre of milk production is about 2000 litres. This dietary
shift will have the greatest impact on water consumption over the next 10
years, and is likely to continue well into the middle of the twenty-first
century.
This is a very complex and serious problem. Food
security of India needs serious attention by all.
According to author’s estimate, with the best of
the efforts and resources India will be not be able to produce enough essential
commodities to meet her growing demand mainly in the area of edible oils and
pulses for human consumption and protein meals and fodder for livestock. Milk
production growth reach will reach stagnation.
In order to meet the demand for food and other
agriculture products, according to author’s estimate, by 2030, India will need
double the land mass to produce food and other agriculture items if the productivity
remain static at the same level. The alternate option before us is double the
yield per unit area to meet the growing demand or look at alternate sources of
food supplies.
There are many supply side challenges which will
need out of box thinking because existing way of working has exhausted its
potential to deliver the desired results.
Estimated food requirements of India by 2030 calculated
by author are given in the table below:
Demand projections by author based on various recommended
consumption parameters (in million tons)
|
|||
|
Category
|
In 2015
(Estimated.)
|
By 2030
(Projected)
|
Required Growth in production
per year
(in Million tons)
|
|
Pulses
|
17.2
|
40.0
|
1.52
|
|
Coarse
Cereals
|
41.7
|
102.0
|
4.02
|
|
Wheat
|
88.9
|
95.0
|
0.41
|
|
Rice
|
104.8
|
156.0
|
3.41
|
|
Oilseeds
|
26.7
|
70.0
|
2.89
|
|
Milk
|
146.3
|
182.0
|
2.38
|
|
Fish
|
10.1
|
16.0
|
0.39
|
|
Egg
|
39.2
|
57.0
|
1.19
|
|
Meat
|
6.0
|
15.0
|
0.60
|
|
Fruits
|
86.0
|
110.0
|
1.60
|
|
Vegetables
|
167.0
|
180.0
|
0.87
|
|
Tea
|
0.9
|
1.1
|
0.01
|
|
Sugar
|
25.0
|
33.0
|
0.53
|
|
Total
food Demand
|
759.8
|
1057.1
|
19.82
|
|
Please
note: Demand for many other items which make part of food system is yet to be
estimated.
Source: The POLITIECONOMY, Int’l Research Journal
of Political Economy, Volume 3, Issue 1, September 2016, Page 135
|
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Implications on Indian Economy and on her foreign exchange reserves
Considering the above facts, India will have to
import commodities like edible oils and pulses from the world market. In coming
days’ sugar, wheat, meat and dairy products will also be potential drain on
foreign exchange. We are already importing agro-based products worth USD 23 to
25 billion.
The average estimated import of edible oil will be
about 15 million tons and pulses about 6 to 8 million tons in near future. The
estimated value of these two products will be about USD 20 to 25 billion
annually in coming years. The project foreign exchange out-flow will be about USD
50 billion of agro-based products. It means India will invest about USD 50
billion of foreign exchange to buy these two basic commodities from the world
market in coming year. It seems, this is more than the total net profit earned
by non-agriculture sector from the world market.
It is high time India should consider all options
about how to increase the supply of these commodities from domestic sources. At
the same time India should also think, how to develop a strong and reliable sourcing
base beyond India which can ensure supplies at an affordable price, so that
food inflation can remain under control.
How to meet the challenges of food security in coming days?
Control the population growth, this will be the most
important option before us as nation. In absence of this option, we have to
explore all other options.
The most important approach which we have to adopt is
document the natural resources like soil, water, seeds, livestock, etc. and
their technical parameters.
The two most limiting resources for food security will
be land and water. There must be national policy to manage both these resources
with the help of modern technologies like remote sensing, digital recording of
soil health and water table measurement on real time basis. This must be shared
with public on real time basis to sensitize the masses about the changing
ground reality.
Policy planners should also explore how to conserve the
soil and water. Every panchayat and municipalities must have a ground water
recharge plan and it should be monitored as public assets and must be audited
on monthly basis. Open and transparent system will create public awareness and
encourage public participation in preserving water and soil health.
Modern technologies like water recycling plants,
desalination plants on coastal areas, sewage treatment plants should be
included as part of infrastructure to ensure maximum use of water.
Research has to work on new seed varieties and breeds which
can produce the food, fiber and feed in less water and can withstand climate
shocks. This means we have to think of all options and no ideological
preference or concerns will help us in this crisis. This will classic cause and
effect relationship outcome.
Many critics may protest the use of technology. I
propose that anyone opposing the technological intervention must provide a
better National Food Security Plan with resources required and their sources
before rejecting the existing proposal.
There must be National Agriculture Technology Policy
which should clearly define the role and rights of technology providers and
technology users. The technology can create a serious divide between haves’ and
have-nots’. The national technology policy must address this challenge as well
so that stable socio-political fabric of society can be ensured.
The role of generics and well-established technologies
should be clearly highlighted.
Post-harvest losses and food wastage issues should also
be covered under National Agriculture Technology Policy as well as in National
Food Security Plan.
There is no alternate to food security and there is no
food security without soil quality, water availability, genetics and supply
chain management. If these aspects are
not taken care on priority, this will also lead to social and political unrest
in various parts of the country.
Without social and political stability, other economic
activities and investment will also suffer badly. This will also reflect of
quality of governance and its leadership.
India needs sensible and accountable National Food
Security Plan before we think of any other meaningful economic development
plan. With every passing day, we are losing time and pushing ourselves to a
point of serious concern.
High time to think out of box with all stake holders about
what is the way forward.
Please
feel free to share your views on the same. Any suggestion and comments are
always welcome.
Disclaimer:
Views are personal.
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