Voters & Cadres Mindset and Parliamentary Election - 10 Key Messages from Indian Political Discourses

2019 Indian Parliamentary Election

Testing time for Indian Voters and its impact on Political Outcomes

Why exit polls may go wrong?

By:Vijay Sardana

Last five years were very interesting in Indian political space. Many experiments were done by voters and that has made Indian democracy more mature. Please consider all elections including national, states and local elections in the last five years as part of political experiments by Indian voters.

Indian Citizens and Voters will display their true political wisdom and learning from last 5 years in 2019 which many political debates on TV and in media is not discussing because channels are taking political positions and not allowing logical discourse to happen.

In Indian mainline media, economics is suppressing sociology. Nothing wrong from their angle, they also need money to survive. After all, governments (states + union + local bodies) spend billions of dollars on media advertisements in 5 years and all want to enjoy the party. You may see their colours changing as the the direction of the wind in coming days. This is normal.

Social media is filling the credibility gap created by mainline media. Please read the subtle and mild signals on social media more carefully than big bang and loud analysis of mainline media. Mainline media is governed by commercial criteria and external manifestation but social media is platform for emotional outburst, very often close to reality on ground (discount planted and forwarded fake stories).  

All should appreciate that grooming of average Indian is based on the very liberal, logical and moderate social environment, irrespective of educational and economic status. This impacts their way of thinking and expressions in various walks of life including politics. Harsh words and dividing lines are not appreciated in India. 

Indians cannot be divided on ideologies, they can be divided based on logic. They don't want to be dictated by anyone. Their own space is very vital for them. The division of joint families to nuclear families is a clear example of the same. If this not accepted within families, will they accept in political discourse? I doubt.

My assessment of the ground situation is the following:

1. Average majority Indian does not want to be dictated and pushed in either or political camps: They need their own space for rational thinking and decision making. Indian people cannot vote like a herd to any one party. That is why in India, we have strong democracy even in so-called backward rural areas where the education level is poor.

2. Self-praise & self-glorification is not liked by average citizens, it reflects arrogance: This is another lesson which is learnt by the majority from our religious scripts and elders. Respect everyone including difference of opinion. So, arrogance is a negative trait in Indian society.

3. Trust is key for sustainability - Today, many new regional parties are based on opportunity or very limited agenda as decided by their founding leadership. people don't see the future in them. That is why they are not able to build themselves as an organisation. Without organisation, no mission can be accomplished. Many of them are like private companies for a limited objective and devoid of any credible ideology, they will fade out with the promoter leader.

4 The organisation is key and hierarchy gives the stability: Current trend of imposing state leaders from the top without taking local cadre into confidence and imposed from centre hurts the organisational culture. This shakes the confidence of the cadre and demotivates them to fight for the cause. This time cadre is not motivated because they don't see their effort will be respected by top leadership. That is why one cannot see any wave in this 2019 election.  This will be more visible in assembly elections.

5. Too much exposure is always counter productive: Role of media was counter-productive to current leadership, too much exposure and all credit to one person and marginalizing everyone else is not a democracy in true sense. People of India want to see themselves as force of change, not just one leader. Sharing of credit makes cadre and organisation strong.  This was missed in all mass communication strategies.

6. Respect to elders and stand with trusted friends is an integral part of Indian culture: This was blatantly ignored and disregarded. No one liked this in India. Why this was done in political space by political leaders is still not digested by many. When political leaders cut their credible colleagues to size, it is visible to the public and they don’t like it. This shows that leadership is insecure and self-centred.

7. People are willing to give time and credit for sincere hard work but not willing to accept blame game for non-performance: People do understand that country is too big, it takes time to change things but not willing to accept blame game and justification that I am right always and everyone else is at fault and wrong. Talking negative about dead people, in place of forgiving them, is considered very negative. 

8. 2019 elections will be remembered as a most abusive election - This time voters are quite and not expressing anything because the quality of political discourse is so low that no one wants to be seen associated with anyone.

9. Indian by nature are emotional, reactive, flexible, easy going and believes in destiny: It is very difficult for Indian to drag in one direction by one ideology. They will support anyone as long as the leadership is logical and convincing. This does not mean they will not change their opinion if they see logic is missing and the discourse is shifting from the stated objectives. They may shift their opinion based on what they see on ground. 
Indian History is well documented where any hard line and fundamentalist approach was rejected at all levels. Appeasement politics is also not accepted by society at large except the beneficiaries. India believes in mutual respect and harmony, unfortunately politicians with no vision except selfish motives promote such division concepts to divide and rule. In 2014 it was rejected by people and in 2019 we will again witness the same.

10. Indian are hero worshippers: They love to support the hero but it is the duty of the hero to maintain the ideals which are projected by him to the public. That is why Indian armed forces are most respected organisations. Indian history is full of heros and leaders but all are not respected equally in India. Why? People discard the person due to a breach of trust. Indian do give support to weaker but struggling leaders but do not like that their trust is taken for granted. Indians like decisive leader but humble leader not arrogant. 

2019 national elections in India will display the true political thinking of an average Indian and please evaluate the same in the social context of India because in this election there is no wave, no agenda and no credible leadership which is acceptable to all.

The way forward:

Exit Poll organisers are discounting all negative factors and bad news and only focusing on what is visible. Is this reflecting true picture of Indian electorate. 
Let us see what happens on 23rd May' 2019. For me whatever is the outcome, is the crucial political turning point for Indian electoral politics and will make India more politically stable after small turmoil in the form of mid-term polls because many regional parties will be directionless due to upcoming assembly elections.

Do share your views and be critical in your analysis.

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